Interesting article from Bloomberg regarding the earthquake tragedy in Italy. It appears that a local scientist recently predicted the earthquake based on the analysis of seismic data and recent tremors. However, he predicted it would occur on March 29 instead of April 5. The Civil Protection Agency met on March 31 and concluded that the local scientist was wrong and was even considering charging the scientist with falsely alarming the public. Well, so much for that.
The real question here is, 'Where was the leadership of the Civil Protection Agency?' Did they take the easy way out by not forewarning the population? Were they afraid of being embarrassed if they were wrong? Were they hoping it would go away on its own? Did they send out any steps to be followed by the populace in the event of an earthquake?
There are a lot of questions and at least one answer. The leadership was lacking and many suffered because of it. Will the leadership do the right thing next time?
Since this link with numerous photos.
Cheers, Mike
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I think we can also take a lesson from an error by the scientist. Instead of predicting the quake would happen on March 29, what if he had said the quake was predicted to occur between March 27 and April 5. That would have given him a 10 day window. This is the same thing that happens when companies are doing scenario or contingency planning. They forget they are estimates and expect precision.
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